Epic Failure

I remember talking to a few older cowboys, Their faces dried up like those apple dolls, and most of their sunny days were spent on the porch.

I was in my teens, I did know which end of a horse to put the bit, but not much more. This one old cowboy was as well spoken as Will Rogers, he could keep me from blinking with some of his stories about turn of the century events.

I remember his opinion of horses, about how he’d never fully trust one that had been grazing on loco weed. I reflect on that conversation, and I wish more old cowboys were voting.

All those folks we elected voting on bills they never read, if they were horses, who in their right mind would ride them?

Have a great weekend..

G

A joke?

No need to read it all to get the idea of the day.. if this rant is too much, scroll down to the blue..

Younger people might never remember the blues laws we had in this state, and most would agree they are best left in the past. I mention it only to demonstrate how much we have changed.

But there’s lessons to be had, and some things  just a little sad about what we do.

There’s an Indian Casino not far from me, I’ve been there three times, and two of them were to meet friends for breakfast and eat a very nice meal subsidized by those who gamble.  The other trip was to people watch.

There’s one heck of a parking lot there, and I have walked the rows till I became worried that security would approach me as a possible  car prowler. The obvious is given away by the year and condition of the cars. These are flat out NOT the wealthy people of our state, and any efforts to break down visitors by ethnicity is not PC. Yes, people from all walks of life walk through the doors of this palace I mention, but when we break it down into percentages, there’s a strong Asian influence, and a few other groups that might be far better represented than if we did the same study at the Target store or other places. What this suggests to me is these people were influenced by their environment as one would expect. If you grow up in an environment where luck is a common topic, why wouldn’t you have a higher percentage of people who might play the games of luck?

My State has no option, they tolerate the Native Indians, and sometimes the Indians buy Influence that puts the State at a disadvantage in court and in the public opinion.

My State does what it can to protect it’s gambling enterprise, and I remember how they swayed the voters ( those in office at the time)  said the money raised might take care of ever need. The end of sales tax, the best of schools, and maybe we could gold plate all the handrails in Olympia?

We older people know that it never ends, give them half, and they want three quarters. But what bothers me is my State preys on many of those they say are most in need of a helping hand.

And now we have legal Marijuana, at least according to my State, and there’s several reasons it was voted in. Some were convinced the taxes on this drug would solve every financial problem of the State. Others saw it as a way to take the game out of the hands of criminals, and keep money at home. And then of course.. there’s nuts that keep people like Jim McDermott in power that think there’s no end to what government can do for you if only we give them enough money.

I remember grade school, that day we rolled some old tobacco borrowed from a bag used to wipe down a windshield, we rolled it up in tony permanent papers, and attempted to smoke it.  MJ will be so easy to get here shortly, and when you see the smoke curl up behind the backstop, the odds might be worth a bet..it’s likely going to be MJ.  A lot of Mommies voted for it to be legal here, and the State will soon be in the drug business, some are giddy, and some so naïve to believe the money taken in won’t be used to buy influence and votes to keep a party in power.

But gambling and drugs are in, at least in my State, and perhaps you need think how to profit off it? After all, so of the most upstanding in our community think it’s the way to go.

I was thinking of a portal, A new way to look at Ebay and what’s for sale there. So many know of their lucky days, your site is a Para mutual on line palace, you rake in a cut, and distribute the rest, those who buy according to the luck they feel will certainly take your odds, and a chance to ‘WIN’ that EBAY item at far less cost.

Of course.. if I can think of it, that palace already exists, and my state will prosecute you if they catch you in a visit on line. After all, this is their game, and they don’t want you playing elsewhere.

But now my final muse.. we see more Asians at the gambling hall, and we know it doesn’t have a thing to do with the color of their hair.  That ole saying, we are products of our environment. Now we need look ahead and ask.. what kind of environment does our State help create in order to take their cut? I guess you’d have to see the investments they make in advertising their wares, the endless TV ads about how someone has to win, and how you need play in order to win, our kids are watching, without a lot of guidance, they’ll think it’s all the norm. And our public school teachers, many are wedded to the State.  It’s all such a powerful influence on our kids, and we at least need to teach them about the odds of losing.

If you ever wondered how so many Asians came to believe in luck, maybe you’ll ask why the rest of the population is in the process of joining them?

Now close your eyes and visualize that new portal for EBAY, and the new icon there on the page. Maybe it’ll be a pair of dice? Will it be the highest bidder, or the pile of loot gambled that claims the item at the end of the auction? Auction sniper, heard of that? Your house might be called Auction Casino.

Have a great day..

GB

As the world turns, people hardly notice the changes unless they are under the wheels of progress.

At Fifty some, I contracted RA. I never heard of a family member having such a thing, so maybe it’s not inherited?  Over my life, I’ve exposed myself to a lot of chemistry, especially in the war zone.. who knows exactly how an immune response turns bad in every case?

It took some doing, but eventually I placed myself in the hands of a good Rheumatologist who took the time to explain the mechanics of the disease and explain >my< options. Today, I still enjoy 10 mile walks with my wife at a wildlife watching slow pace of 3.1 miles per hour average. If I tell the truth, it’s her pace that limits our speed, but for goodness sakes, spare my life, and don’t share what I say. The drug I’ve been taking has done an incredible job of allowing me to live a very normal life.

How many suffer permanent joint damage because Doctors don’t recognize the symptoms? Lots of them, and as one Doctor told me.. we were trained NOT to hunt Zebras. And.. as I’d tell you, that’s a good way never to find  one.  It’s a reminder that there is no substitute for YOUR involvement in troubleshooting the cause of your affliction, and you need be persistent in your pursuit of a real diagnosis before the heavy damage is done. Yes, we’re talking our stuff.. DIY.

Up till age 65, I took a shot every two weeks at home. I ordered the medicine, I took a blood test every two months, I scheduled my own appointments, and slowly built some trust with my doctor that she would see these tests arrive at her office at the proper intervals. This allowed me 90 day prescriptions, and far less hassle.

Regardless of the promises over the years, my employer told me that due to changes well beyond their control, my medical would become more conditional than it once was, I don’t suggest it’s different than most jobs, but I do remember complaining that others had better pay, and the standard response was always, “but you’re retirement and medical will be among the best” I did expect my premiums to keep going up, but I didn’t really understand that what is covered prior to 65 may not be covered at 65 and after.

At 65, I was told that remaining on the same medication was not an option, that there really was no way to bill my insurer for the drug when I gave it to myself.

The many changes and a little fear caused me to get a number of options (extra insurance) on top of my medicare. The true test is seeing how it all pays and what the co-pays are.

But this post is not about details, it’s not about pain, or misery, it’s about change and anticipating it.  It’s about the new plan, and my first day.  I need tell you my Doctor is the best, that her staff has been wonderful, but they say there’s no shot I can give myself under medicare rules, and there is no shot they can give me in their clinic just up the street.

So much for an old guy to process, this change I need to make, and I’m hoping that what I type here will warn at least one person with RA to anticipate the changes and know the world is in constant flux, can we keep up with the changes and anticipate what’s ahead? This new drug, Cimzia, it’s a little like a magic bullet, there is two ways the drug is administered, but the self injection is not available under Medicare rules. I don’t suggest there’s not a good reason, I just don’t know what it is yet.

That first day.. my injectable drug of choice was no longer an option was like a benchmark. The new plan is that I will jump in the car, and go to the hospital for my shots.  Considering the alternatives, I make the appointment. The person in the Infusion center explains I qualify for a parking permit, that they validate if I decide I want to park in the garage, that the infusion center is near the big fish tank.

My appointment is for 0800 hours on a Friday. I hadn’t thought much about it, but there I am in rush hour traffic chugging along, but I still arrived 15 minutes early, it’s what I like to do. As I walk to the counter, the receptionist greets me with a big smile, and one of the two orders on top of her desk is mine. I asked her if she needed my insurance info, she said no, we got all of that now that we’re all connected, meaning the info my Doctor had entered was available to her as well.

I was introduced to a Nurse, she would be giving me my shot, I followed her into a room and was offered a comfortable chair. The extra care I was getting made me nervous, and offer of coffee, juice, a bagel? I looked down at my knee cap, and it was smeared with what looked like a grease mark! I was fresh out of the shower, did I miss that, or was that rag I kneeled on to tie my shoe greasy? Imagine, me having a greasy rag…

The nurse opens a sealed bag and pulls out a pressure cup, hooks it to a machine and takes my blood pressure, it’s elevated, and I explain I’m more than a little anxious, and she should expect it to come down later. I wonder about the charge for that disposable pressure cup? An Aspirin is typically $8 or more in a hospital.

The nurse explains she’s waiting for my medication, she smiles and excuses herself. The attention I’m getting is still making me nervous, perhaps I’m worse off than I knew? Are they treating me this nice cause I’m now old? Maybe it’s cause I have RA and I’m now 65? Then I think about hospitals and the competition, maybe they’re just nice cause they want me to come back? The real reason might be is this infusion center gets visited by really…really sick people, what the heck am I doing here?

I think about flying, about how maybe I better get out to Tiger Mountain and jump off the hill and soar with my feathered friends before it’s too late.

A woman comes by my room, she asks if she can get me anything, juice, coffee, milk, a bagel?  Maybe it’ll pass the time, I accept the offer of coffee, and it was there in 2 minutes, what service! But as I study her, I think it’s me that should be giving her a helping hand.

After I had been in the room for 15 minutes or so, a Pharmacist introduces herself and explains… “I am really sorry, your drug is not here yet, and I did some checking, according to the order, the latest they can deliver it is 11:00AM today.”

Since I have been in such situations myself, and hoping my customer understood, I was agreeable, I smiled and left a cell phone number to call. We agreed I’d come in at 11:00 for my shot. I walked the block to where I parked, and drove back home, hanging around sick people is no way to spend the day unless you’re attempting to cheer them up.

At 10:30, I got a message from the Nurse.. the drug not here yet, at 10:45, I got a call from the Pharmacist, you’re drug is here, and I’ll prepare it for injection if you are on your way back to the hospital? I told her I’d be there in a half hour or so, and off I went.

Being thrifty, I left my hospital wrist band on.. when I walked to the counter, a different receptionist had the scissors out to cut it off, the other receptionist told her.. no need, he was just here, it’s still good. They call the same nurse, her plan is to squeeze me in among the other scheduled appointments, and I’m taken to a more elaborate room with a hospital bed, but she moves a chair in, far less comfortable than the first, but nicer than I’d buy for the shop.  I think of the infusions they infuse, how I’m here just for a shot.

She explains she’ll take my blood pressure again, and she opens another one of those disposable pressure cups. I wonder, do they do this for everyone, or do I look like I have the plague? I did shower, but that dirt on my knee cap may have caused her to use a different protocol? Whatever we touch this guy with, we need to dispose of.. maybe most of the folks who come here are really really sick and contagious?

After a bit, my medication arrives, I promise not to cry, and explain to the nurse.. I don’t like shots, and I’ll be looking the other way. Perhaps my dislike of needles is the only thing that’s kept me from being an intravenous drug user? A guy needs consider the positive aspects of a mental thing.  And yes, I did give myself shots, you do what you have to do, but you need not like it.

I was warned that I might have to sit there for a bit after the shot to see if this new biologic might cause a reaction in me, but the nurse said you’re good to go. As I gathered myself together, I thought about all the people I had been served by, and some were volunteers. The main receptionist that told me where the Infusion center was, the infusion center receptionists (two of them) the Nurse, the pharmacist and her staff. The parking lot security guy, the person offering refreshments. I felt catered too, and it caused me to reflect on what my friend Christy Johnson told me about her friend’s first visit to the hospital at 65 for a single dose of RA drugs under medicare rules. She got a bill for $38,000, yes, it was an error, but it nearly stopped her heart. I was wondering what was coming in the mail for this little visit?

There’s a restaurant in Seattle called El Gauchos’ the service there reminds me of what I got in the hospital, the waiters and staff treat even rude customers as if they were royalty.  The food far better than hospital food, but I draw a comparison. As much as I like El Gaucho’s , I don’t eat there often because other places are cheaper, and I am pretty much a thrifty person.

But here, I have no choice, that shot I gave myself, now I depend on others to administer it, and there’s that loss of freedom I feel.  I was able to go to the deepest woods, and take my medication  along. But now… at least till I’m told different, I schedule around that hospital visit. I know I am sooo much better off than others, I’m not feeling sorry for myself, noting what feels like a benchmark change, like a dependence I didn’t expect to arrive because of a day on the calendar.

I think about how I was raised, how I raised my children, what I might not have shared with them, what others in the educational system told them, and how they may forever see the world differently than I do. Perhaps they’ll always think of me as the fool, as I know what big Government always seems to do given enough time. But would I be walking long if every insurance company could choose to dump me?

I do know writing this may be a mistake, perhaps DC will give orders to dull the needle at my next visit to the hospital, and maybe I’ll be audited by the IRS? What an old fool I am to even think of it. But my Romanian friends are realists..

I wonder how all these services I received during this hospital visit  could possibly be less expensive, or better for me than the shot I took myself?  I am totally relieved of making the choice, I can’t shop for the better price. It’s in my DNA to do so.

I know I am no longer part of the majority, and I think of my next visit to the hospital. There’s a service I qualify for, I can drive to the door, they’ll park my car and fetch it for me. If only I can change, if only I can learn to relax and take advantage of these things offered. I plan to use the minimum of services and privileges, and hope I can return to doing as much as possible myself.. after all, I am a DIYer

If this doesn’t work out well, I am a VET, and I might see what their plan is for Vets with RA.  The main reason I write this is to warn others.. if you think there’s a possibility you have RA, don’t expect the first doctor to diagnose it..  If you do have RA, research what it will mean to turn 65, and plan ahead. It’s my hope that these new biologic drugs get cheaper, and that someone will trust me to stick myself as I was doing all along.

Have a great day..

G

honda mower compost

Above: One of the few design flaws in the Honda mower I’ve found. This depression is a bath tub of sorts that allows the spring to rot in wet dirt. The remedy is easy to apply, remove the spring, drill some drain holes, oil the spring, and keep it wet with oil..

I have touched on this before, companies that knew they had to join the crowd and design throw away equipment or simply fail to sell their goods. Arguably, Honda is one of those companies, and I believe lawn mowers were one of the products that built the company in the early days.

I bought one of the first hydrostatic drive Honda mowers with OHVs I saw. I bought it on Honda’s reputation, and perhaps my Dad’s Honda rototiller and the excellent service it provided did the deal.

But…  I’m not the ordinary guy shopping for a lawn mower, we have nearly an acre of lawn, and that lawn is in the Puget Sound Basin where we mow lawns often and for a much longer season than many if not most areas.

But, there’s another factor, I also like to get my last dime out of equipment, so when others throw a lawn mower on the junk pile and buy new, I’m attempting to rebuild or repair the weak link and get another year out of it.

I’ve mentioned that the little Honda OHV engines have provided 10,000 hours of service running battery chargers for off girders, and it’s not just one of them claiming the longevity and trouble free running.

As for the Honda Lawn mower, I did find the weak links in mine, and one of them is the bushings the drive shaft runs in, I have rebuilt this area three times, and I think the front wheels have nearly fallen off twice, or was it three times?

I did retire the first Honda mower to our Easton Summer property, but I’m not sure retire is a proper term as the mower has spent many eight hour or longer days mowing there.  You can say you’d be on a rider, but my wife says.. why is it you’d take regular walks for the exercise and not walk behind a mower?

Hats off to Roger Sperle down the street from me.. he tears lawn mowers apart as a hobby, refurbishes a few, and junks the aluminum and steel as a hobby. Since we are friends, we trade favors and help all the time, and one of his grand gifts is access to junked Honda mowers where I am able to find serviceable parts for that first mower! As I say, it mows at least four times as much lawn as most people do, and it’s well over 20 years of service and ALWAYS starts on a first or second pull.

I don’t like the bushing and bearing designs on the wheels, but who can be disappointed with the service I’ve gotten? So much for a rebuild able and more commercial walk behind.

Yes, we did think we were gambling on the old Honda, so about 12 years ago, we bought a Harmony Hydrostatic, a residential grade mower with an OHC, internal cam belt, and even a plastic cam!

I doubt anyone rebuilds this engine, but after 12 years of mowing four times as much lawn as most people have, we are still going, and I have found many of the weak links are exactly the same as in the commercial grade machine.

The bushings are easy enough to replace, but if they were bronze, and there were some grease fittings, and if you greased regular, you might keep the dirt and grit out. Grease?.. an environmental hazard! A grease gun for the average home owner? Well, there’s a problem..

After two Honda mowers, one commercial, one throw away, I can only say the through away is doing fine.  I just got two more serviceable wheels from Roger, and I replaced the bushings up front that made the wheels all floppy, might be good for another three years of mowing four times as much?

Now I did find something today that I will call a design flaw. The area where the spring lies that tensions the rear door for the bagging system is a depression that holds dirt, and water,. The spring eventually starts to rust and the end of the spring eventually snaps off. A bungie cord helped with the problem till I robbed a spring off a junked Honda today. One thing you need know.. we never leave a mower outside in the weather, we know people that do.. and even leaving them in the sun can cause more trouble than you might know, we do however hose it off, and this may have helped that spring fail.

Money saved is the same as money earned..

GB

Subject: windmill retrofit

Message Body:

I was curious about retrofitting old Aeromotor windmills with a belt reduction to a commonly available truck alternator. With the advent of serpentine belts, it sounds that much more possible. My old 2003 Chevy duramax diesel truck had a serpentine belt perimeter of appx 11.5 ‘. My question is; could the 20″spacer ring of the old Dayton rear truck wheels be machined and modified and attached to the fan for that purpose. It’s otherwise impossible to find a serpentine pulley that large. Any thoughts on that would be appreciated.

Thanks,

Jeff

George’s Answer:

It’s rather amazing what Engineers of the past were able to do with so little wind energy.  I think that’s the case with the old Aeromotors…. lifting the cover off that gear rack, and studying the simple but elegant method to drive the sucker rod is a delight.

I think your first goal should be to identify how much electrical power you would need to generate in order to be happy with your effort, and then another important study might be what the folks of the day did to make electrical power.

How many brands of electrical wind chargers were there? RCA, Zenith, and Winco for Three. If you study their design, they’re all direct drive units that operate at higher RPM, and hopefully deliver enough energy to power a radio.

My first thought is IF there was an easy way for Aeromotor to have gone after that business of selling wind chargers with their existing fans, they would have done so,  but I would imagine their fan was optimized to drive that sucker rod via a reduction box to start work in lower winds with low energy, they knew a Rancher needed water not bragging rights that his outfit pumped the most during a storm..

Consider that the Aeromotor fan was designed to drive through a reduction box and driving a sucker rod whose mass was often ‘countered’ with a weight set up by the Erector to assure that every grain of energy went into lifting water. You’d be taking a fan tuned for a specific chore and adding a speed increaser to drive your Generator.  I have seen such things, but why did all the popular wind chargers of the day go direct drive?

But here’s a more specific reality for you.. a typical truck alternator is quite inefficient, some are able to convert about half the mechanical energy that is put into the generator shaft into electrical energy, others are a bit better, but as I see it.. you are attempting to mate a tiny source of power with a device that was engineered to survive under the hood of a truck, in high heat, produce energy required over a wide range of RPMs, and to be made quickly and cheaply. Perhaps one of the last priorities of the design is efficiency.

Fabricating your very large pulley is a job for sure, some experimenters have used a bicycle rim in the past, and some have even used tiny cable instead of belts.

I think if you define your ’power’ expectations, and then attempt to calculate the power potential of the beautiful and simple Aeromotor fan, you’ll find a miss match, and decide to invest your time with the more popular designs.

Here’s my advice: The Aeromotor fan is a thing of beauty, leave it unmolested, maybe put it up for sale? Look up Hugh Piggott, (a must read)… visit the website “otherpower.com”  and study some of their easy to build wind turbine designs. You’ll likely have fun, and the learning never ends.

So.. you now have my unprofessional advice, but don’t forget to study your property and determine if there’s ever enough wind potential to merit your efforts to capture a bit of it..

Oh yes.. you knew I’d get this in.. didn’t you? And Jeff, I don’t claim you are afflicted.. only a warning to you.  The Gang Green Mind has no patience for figuring.. if they see a breeze come through that causes the leaves in a tree to move, their minds often envision a whirly gig making power equal to what the power company delivers….. everything is simple in their minds.  For the rest of us, it’s best we learn how to measure before we build, and our Carpenter Friends warn us.. measure twice before you cut!

All the best….

George

–

If someone is offering you an engine kit, you might assume it comes with the info to hook up the ignition, but I didn’t find that so easy..

Here’s what you need to know:

That blue/white wire is key! This wire and the Green wire are needed to get your DC Powered CDI unit working. Either the 4 pin or the 6 pin CDI units can be used. DO not attempt to use an AC powered unit, unless you have a rectifier with the correct lead to power and AC powered CDI unit.. That’s what I am being told at the moment..

Remember that green wire coming out of the engine needs to be referenced to battery ground and needs to be run to the CDI unit. You will need 12 volt Battery positive for the CDI unit, and you can provide this via the ignition switch to kill the engine when desired.

That group of smaller wires (six of them on my water cooled 167MM engine are all transmission gear indicator leads, and they each provide a ground for reverse, Neutral and the four forward gears.

Lite green with red tracer = neutral

Red with white tracer= reverse

Solid Pink= first gear

Blue Red Tracer = second gear

Green with black tracer = third  gear

Yellow with red tracer= 4th gear

I’m sure this engine WILL be used in a lot of Chinese domestic transportation, and I expect it will replace a lot of cast iron we see in the two wheel tractors there. and of course, this engine will be exported and find it’s way into go karts, ATVs, UTVs, and more. If you think different, just imagine the energy used to make cast iron products, and the amount of energy required to haul around this bulk in the vehicle over a lifetime. The cost of fuel will dictate lighter and more efficient vehicles.

China and others will likely find cast iron too expensive to ship, and due to the added layer of RED Tape and home land security, it’s likely cheaper to ship a single 67 pound engine via air mail than by SEA if you are shipping to the USA. Will we see a Chinese manufacturer in North America making engines? I think so.. RED tape is expensive.

If you find an English manual for this engine, please consider sharing the info.

G

Why buy it and pay tax when you can print it at home?

Printer

Meanwhile.. we have folks doing mindless work, like limiting the size of soft drinks. It’s obvious their less than elastic brains are unable to grasp that the world is in the midst of turning upside down.

Just how long from now will we have a home appliance that will build at the molecular level? It might be closer than you think..

We have all longed for a flat tax, and we know why there’s resistance, but what is just around the corner will likely force the flat tax into existence.  The issue of EVs and collecting Road tax is complex enough, but that is only the tip of the iceberg, how things are made and where they are made is about to change in a big way. Regulating what is made and how it is made is likely to become cost prohibitive. BUT we shouldn’t expect people in Washington DC to be paying attention, they are fully focused on what’s best for them!

And I’ll make special mention of Frank Lautenberg, a New Jersey  politician, he’s working to control substances easier to make than pancake mix! I can imagine this boy in an Air Raid shelter… he’d be busy picking lint off your suit, and asking you to return the favor by voting for him…

Have a great day!

G

Did Douglas Adams have a working Crystal ball?

I was thinking about my friends the Fishers, our Governor just added so many to their numbers.. gone is the term Fishermen from the State’s dictionary of terms. You out there with the fishing poles or nets are all simply ‘Fishers’ now.

But my muse is about the word processor, and the ability of using the search and replace function. Can you imagine how many additional hours it’d be if you had to set type, and reprint the book, and all at the tax payers expense.
…
Gone are the bounds of paper, and now we have the age where simple rules or laws can be well defined…. in 20,000 pages or more.. it all fits in a cloud..

Hats off to Douglas Adams, he had the muse so long ago.. imagine writing for the State, your word processor tuned to warn you of so many illegal terms.  and the ability for the state to write laws with more pages than you can read..

I’ve placed my bets on Amonix, and my bet is that the folks that own the 7700 power plants will wish they had something else.

Read this article, it’s pretty good… copied below and comment added. 

New Hampshire, USA — Amonix has posted new record conversion efficiency numbers for its concentrated solar photovoltaic (CPV) module in outdoor testing, inching ever closer to a cost profile that would make CPV competitive with more mainstream solar technologies.

Imagine that! they say it could be competitive with more mainstream technologies! I suggest you call Amonix and ask them what they’d charge to install a bare 7700 tracker (no panels and no inverters) for, I bet the price is far higher than you’d even imagine. I also suggest you pay attention to their irrelevant focus on conversion efficiency, who cares?  The real world is interested in $ per watt including ongoing maintenance costs, and don’t we know CPV has a LOT more maintenance that needs to be done over cheaper and trouble free conventional panels. 

Solar Energy, Solar Tech

It was a nice day and I told him I had to go… it’s like pissing into the wind.. I might as well have been  talking to my own Senator.

But this gets us into critical thinking, and you might ask… what’s wrong with this idea?