Is Amonix the next Solyndra?
Amonix Trackers in Alamosa, these things are huge and expensive!
As you read this, keep in mind, this was the Crown Jewel, the top pick of a Top Green Investment Fund Manager, can you imagine how bad the other investments are?
504 Huge trackers on 255 acres at Alamosa. If you haven’t been following this company, it seems Amonix has a unique and different approach. Instead of taking advantage of the plummeting prices of Solar Panels, and using them in a fixed and trouble free (KISS) rack mount, they chose to mount 65KW of panels on Huge, and I mean REALLY huge trackers! The trackers cost a fortune and look like they came off a ‘Star Wars Movie Set’! Each tracker cost about $250,000, and they need maintenance people on site to look after them sources say.
As the prices of panels plummet, Solar Voltaic Engineers generally see better economics in adding additional panels, and optomizing the installed angle for fixed mounting. I’ve read that many engineers see superior economics over tracking systems by spending part of the tracker budget on the addition of 20 percent more fixed rack mount, and additional panels. What we need to digest here, is the cost of the tracker, and math that suggests we can add another 180KW of panels and fixed mounts to each 65KW of installed panels and dump the Maintenance hassle of the monster trackers. I don’t suggest I’m a Solar Engineer, so I’ll leave the question up to you.. what gain in efficiency must this tracker deliver (trouble free) for about 30 years to compete with fix mount panels on a cost per KwH delivered basis? Is there a good reason the Amonix approach is unique?
http://www.investorideas.com/news/renewable-energy/4211.asp
Notice the mention of Ben Kortland in this article above.
“Amonix CPV systems have emerged as the lowest cost solar technology for sunny and dry environments,” said Ben Kortlang, Partner of Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers. “Developers and utilities are choosing Amonix systems because of their 15-year track record in the field, high reliability, ease of deployment and industry-leading efficiency.”
Here’s the question, does Ben Kortland have any Engineering experience? Does he have any hands on experience in Solar Power production and maintenance? Could he find a cross in the Vatican?
It’s a very sad thing that the CEO of Amonix died in a plane crash in December 2011 leaving a Wife and three Children behind. A very sad event for his Family and Company. I hear that the loss of the CEO has left the Company pretty much without a rudder, and the enthusiasm seems to have died with him.
There’s some things that insiders say isn’t adding up, at least that’s the rumors, the folks who do know how to count beans are thinking that the current customer is being charged around $200,000 for an installed tracker, and the current cost is around $250,000 each. So… we’re talking acres of these things, and we need multiply this 50K loss by 504 trackers alone, that’s a pretty big number, and some say this is not the only thing that doesn’t add up.
Rumors suggest that Amonix projects have been postponed, and it’s likely that there will be no more installation work for Amonix employees unless the company can be profitable in making the installation, imagine that. Next, we might hear Investors expect a profit too.
It was not that long ago, I was visiting with one of my favorite technical minds…. Brian W and I were sitting at his dining room table discussing Solar Voltaic Panels when his Sister, a Grade School Teacher joined in, she said ”I don’t really care what solar panels cost, my Husband and I want to install them just to set a good example, we don’t care if they ever pay us a dime.” I looked over at Brian and saw the corners of his mouth turn up ever so slightly, I stared directly at him, he couldn’t take the pressure and stared up at the ceiling trying to shake me off. I knew better than take another sip of coffee, as I might have started laughing and spewed coffee all over Brian. His Sister soon decided we were bores and left to join a conversation in the other room… little did she know that she had spawned a great idea, and Brian and I discussed a potential money-making idea!
Maybe you haven’t followed Evergreen, Solyndra, Solon, or others, but in my mind and in the mind of many others, there was no chance these companies could compete in the market place, they didn’t have business plans that produced any kind of profitability.
Do these Companies exist only because there are fools lined up for a block to invest in anything that looks green? OR is it the generous incentives that are more or less transferred directly from your Social Security contributions into the hands of others?
Back to the plan Brian and I hatched.. you’ve seen those vinyl signs they apply to van bodies and more? Highly UV resistant, and you can print anything onto them! So why don’t we print a matrix that looks like the face of a solar panel, and we build a roofing system that looks like solar panels for people who want other people to think they are doing the right thing? Think about it, as long as they look good, we have no service calls, and the customer is happy, install it, collect your money, and move on. At the end of the day, the systems delivered by some of the real solar companies will disappoint their customers and investors, our idea will likely leave everyone involved happy, and their incentives will be the admiration and respect their neighbors pay them.
More links about Amonix:
http://amonix.com/content/careers
Htttp://www.therepublic.com/view/story/99aa19ba55e04b21aabd0b2dae3ba801/NV–Solar-Project-Layoffs/
How bout you invest in the Utterpower/Ward (Solar-Like Panels), now I hope you don’t try copyrighting the name “Solar-Like Panels”, because we got our guys working on it right now. There will be no disappointments when we tell folks up front it doesn’t provide a return on your investment, but the incentives paid for ownership, that’s what it’s all about.
At the end of the day, someone might ask.. just how much of the American Dream was squandered on providing Government incentives? It’s just recently that most in Government will admit that Ethanol subsidies might have done more to hurt us than help us, but not long ago, some would have bet their lives on it being the only thing to do.
In closing, there’s always good in any story.. If you have a Company that needs a few good installers, you might attempt to recruit those who were laid off by Amonix or soon will be. It appears the work force put up a mountain of product in record time.
No doubt, there is a pay off in solar when >you< do it yourself, call in the clowns, and it’s likely a far less attractive deal..
make sure you read the comments, also google Amonix, stores are breaking now…
All the best,
George B.
P.S. Wait a minute… I’ve got another thought.. the movie rights! did you think of buying the movie rights? Now watch Amonix, it will likely be in the news in the weeks ahead, and this Ben guy, anybody know him? Is he one of those long haired medical marijuana users? Does he drive a VW Bus? No doubt he must live in San Francisco? This could be a novel in the Making, will Warren Buffet dump his Amonix Stock, or use it to offset other gains? Who will play Warren Buffet’s part? Was the CEO’s plane brought down by a missile fired by Big Oil? Maybe it was those damned Arabs, were they afraid this technology was going to put a dent in their oil sales? Greenies will want to know.
Ohh, just one more thing, if these trackers ever get scrapped, can you imagine what kind of desert shade tree this would make for your patio? Adjustable too.. Perhaps there’s a play to be made on buying the salvage rights?
G
The investor you mention in this article has to know that there’s 65KW worth of panels on these $250,000 trackers, and that you can easily buy brand name panels, racking and inverter for a 180 KW quality system right now for less than the $250K, no special deals required! So what kind of expertise does this Ben guy have in Green Investments?
So now, we need follow the money trail, there’s a reason Amonix got the mega infusion of cash, where did it all go? Don’t expect any help from elected officials in power right now, green is good, no mattter how bad it is..especially if part of that money flows back in the form of political contributions to help win the next election cycle. Not that I suggest that’s what happened here.
js
I updated the post to include these figures, I bet they are fairly accurate. thanks for your comment..
Hey George…..how about roll roofing with the printed solar panels? We could install a roof with many more “Solar-Like Panels” in less time and also claim the roof would never leak due to the insalation of the mounting hardware used with the old method. People would drive by and think wow that guy has power!……
Here’s a story that’s come out since my post:
http://www.solarnovus.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=4234:amonix-cuts-workforce&catid=37:business-news&Itemid=241
One more, this is the tip of the Ice berg, there’s plenty of story here, read the comments under this story.. as I predicted, the wacko greenies are curious about that plane crash. want to place bets Big Oil will be mentioned as the one who bought the missle
My condolences to all those at Amonix who lost their jobs, or soon will. Read where Culbertson mentions that Amonix is revamping and tooling up for a more efficient solar offering, ask yourself..who couldn’t be more efficient just by dropping that Star Wars Like tracker, and how much confidence do you have in a company that deployed it in the first place? And the Mayor.. you need ask yourself, would She have invested in the Hojo? As I predicted.. this is going to be a bigger story, National News Tommorrow.
Breaking news this a.m. Ener1 filed chapter 11 after receiving $118 million in gov’t subsidies. http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012/01/27/parent-obama-backed-battery-maker-goes-bankrupt/
How many more lousy business decisions will be made before we wake up? I’m afraid California will be “too big to fail” and will have to be bailed out by the Federal Government. I’m glad I moved out of there, but you and I will likely pay the bills.
Keep reading Comments Elden, I hear that Amonix or the Alamosa project no matter how insane it was, has a loan of 90 million underwritten by the US Government, so we’re on the hook again.
Here’s one about the Amonix magic!
http://optics.org/indepth/2/8/1
I agree with your comments re trackers George
why build a mechanical liability and complexity into some thing as reliable as a solar array?
If you want more power just add more (now relatively cheap) P.V. panels and move on.
Cost benefit analysis shows for a home system shows for the price of a tracker and its foundations you can add enough panels to a static array for near if not the same performance and best of all its KISS. I cant imagine a large commercial array such as these would be any different, maybe there are some economies of scale that have a bearing on it? I would be surprised. The only time a tracker is warranted, I feel, is when there are space constrictions
Hello Darren Hill!
Good to hear from you, I’m hoping you are happy and well. For others who might read your post, I’ll just remind folks that the real learning comes when you grab the chalk and work out the economics in front of the class, they’ll keep you honest. As an equipment dealer and Installer in Northland, I know YOU are usually asked to give veritable evidence that your designs provide the best economic benefit to your customers. I have learned over the years to seek hands on advice from people like yourself and to get my own hands on the equipment when possible. There’s little chance I’d take the advice of an Investment Fund Manager as to what type of solar system to buy. The one link I provided in the comments pretty well defines the technology that propelled Amonix into the limelight, apparently there’s a concentrator layer in front of those panels creating a claimed 26 percent efficiency, I didn’t take time to read if this was an increase per square area, or defined in some other way, but we both understand that with a $250,000 tracker, it wasn’t cheapest per KWH! AND we need recall that our Fund Manager specifically mentioned that Amonix was the leader in efficiency in their targeted markets, I will quote: “Amonix CPV systems have emerged as the lowest cost solar technology for sunny and dry environments,” said Ben Kortlang, Partner of Kleiner, Perkins, Caufield & Byers”. Sunny and dry usually equates to desert, or areas where the cost of land is normally a minor part of the installation cost, so who cares if your system uses a percentage more square area per Kilo Watt Hour, and certainly not at Alamosa.
Perhaps one of the more interesting questions… will this Alamosa site employ the team of maintenance personnel, parts, trucks, lifts, and other equipment necessary to keep these trackers running as part of the plan? It appears the Mayor of Alamosa thinks the layoffs at Amonix are temporary. I figure if Amonix made the decision to pay $250,000 for the trackers, and sell them for $200,000 to their Customer, then there’s likely other problems that will surface, but hey, I’m just a bone head that is guided by a basic need to know the most important bit of hard data, the real cost per Kilo Watt Hour over the realistic life of the equipment including maintenance and up keep.
I have told a story about a certain Dr. Francisco Rodriguez-Sanchez in Mexico who wrote an incredibly brilliant summary of how important it is to produce products that provide a ‘veritable’ return on investment for the stake holders. ‘Seb’, as his friends call him went to lay out how this evidence was to be measured in the research he was doing in Mali. I need put that story up for all of us to keep in mind, but I think some of our elected officals need take note of the concept ASAP.
It’s starting to make sense now. It’s been rumored that the U.S. Goverment underwrote loans to Amonix and or for the Alamosa Project! Since the US Taxpayer is the dupe again, there’s really little concern about whether any aspect of this project is viable or not, a lot fo people likely got rich doing what they did, and you get to hold the bag.
I’m sure many of us can now understand just how helpless the Russian People felt as their Government forced them to do crazy things during the cold war years. This is absolutely the same thing, perhaps the real difference is the Russian people knew they were getting screwed, and about half the American people are too dumb to figure it out. Remember, your Government has no money, they must take it from you before they can hand it to the Cons who engineer stupid stuff like the Alamosa install.
This may be the loan for this VERY expensive install: https://lpo.energy.gov/?projects=cogentrix-of-alamosa-llc